Cold spells
Earth is a dynamic planet. Greenland was once covered by forest and at another point in time a huge inland ice covered the Hoggar mountains in the Sahara. Geological time is not needed to show that temperature variation is normal, however. In historical times the Black Sea has been ice-covered more than once. The Baltic Sea froze over for example in 1154, 1323, 1709, 1740, 1942, and 1987.
Why are we afraid of the prospect that northern Europe, Asia and the United States could become 3–5 degrees warmer? Vacationing is generally popular in places with higher temperature. For those with a longer time perspective than the 25 years that living memory encompasses it is obvious the the warmer periods in history have been better for humanity than the colder ones. Many people today seem hung up on greenhouse effect and the idea that human carbon dioxide emissions are the cause of the 1° C rise in global mean temperature the past 100 years. Believing nature to be linear, meteorologists predict that temperature will rise 3–5° C in the next 100 years. That is an unlikely scenario; more probable is a rapid shift to a colder climate, which should cause more worry.
Cold stunts tree growth, diminishing forest production. All agricultural production is diminished — bad harvests in historical times are usually caused by cold, not drought. Bad harvests have caused famine and high mortality rates. If the cold is severe large trees will crack and fruit trees will become dehydrated and die. In the North Temperate Zone apple, pear, plum, and cherry trees are killed by the cold. In the South Temperate Zone grapevines, peach trees, apricot, orange, olive, lemon and fig trees are killed. The roots of the lemon tree can only withstand a temperature of −3° C. In February of 1956 the olive groves in the Rhone valley in France were killed, some of them planted in the 14th century, and in 1985 the olive trees in Tuscany were killed by the cold.
Animal life is also negatively affected by cold. The insects disappear, insect-eating birds perish and it will take a decade for bird life to return to normal. When lakes and rivers freeze to the bottom fish and many other water-living creatures like turtles and amphibians are killed. The wolf population grows. Severe cold in the arctic kills whales and seals when their air holes freeze over and they drown. This makes the number of polar bears decrease. A positive thing about cold is the decrease of parasites, which gives fewer cases of malaria, dengue and other fevers.
Throughout history tens of thousands of people have been killed during each year of severe cold. In the following hunger many more became ill and died. Millions of domestic animals were killed, including horses. Land transport was impossible.
Today high-income societies would also come under strain from cold spells. The water reservoirs are not replenished in the cold and energy consumtion will rise. For societies where a large part of the energy is supplied by water turbines the cost of heating during a cold period far surpasses the cost of air conditioning during a heat period.
Our database TRITON shows the effects of both cold and warm spells during several thousand years in different parts of the globe. This makes us capable of giving well-founded advice for your business. Our research and advice is never guided by political agendas. Nature does not adapt itself to us, mankind must adapt to nature.